Ep 106 Will Govt's Return to Office Policy Bring End to Remote Work?

blog Jan 28, 2025

   

You're listening to the remote work retirement show. I'm your host, Camille Attell. And this is the only show that helps semi retirees figure out the remote work options.

I believe the remote work is the new retirement plan and that many retirees have both the ability and desire to work how they want so they can live how they want. Let's dig into today's episode....

 

I want to let you know, before we get into the nuts and bolts of today's topic, that I am recovering from yet another head cold. The story behind that is I am back in North Carolina, volunteering for Hurricane Helene cleanup. I've been doing this since October of 2024, and I have had not one but three different types of colds.

This is my third one. I really hope I'm done with it. So that means my voice may be a little crackly, and I probably sound a little nasally. I apologize for that. Today, I’m going to do something a little different. I don’t know that I’ve ever done this on the show, but I feel like this may make it easier to listen to me and my strange voice. I want to read to you an article I came across on MarketWatch.

Not everyone has access to MarketWatch, but I’m a subscriber because they publish some really great content—informative articles I think are worth sharing. I’m going to read one of those today. If I read the entire thing, it would take about eight minutes, so I may skip some parts, but I’ll share most of it to give you the full picture.

The title of the article is: “Will Trump’s Tough Stance on Remote Work Drag Everyone Else Back to the Office? Don’t Bet on It.” I also want to mention that I don’t intend to get political in this episode. I like to take an objective view—look at policies, analyze them, and bring the information to you. My goal is for you to hear the article, form your own opinions, and see if we agree or disagree.

This article was published on January 25th, 2025, two days ago at the time of this recording, and it was written by Andrew Keszner. I don’t know who Andrew Keszner is; I could research him, but for now, I’ll trust he knows what he’s talking about.

So, here we go:

“In his first day back on the job, President Donald Trump officially joined a fight that some bosses are picking to end remote work and get their staff back in the office five days a week.”

Boo, that “boo” is my added effect! The article continues:

“Trump’s added clout in the return-to-office tug of war still may not be able to entirely reverse the use of remote and hybrid work. Federal workers are being forced back to the office, but I do not think many other companies will follow, and I’m not sure if the federal policy itself will even be fully enforced or persist,” says Nick Bloom, a Stanford University professor and an expert on remote and hybrid work.

He posted this on LinkedIn after Trump’s order, which sends federal workers back to the office full-time. The COVID-19 pandemic had made remote and hybrid jobs available to white-collar workers on a larger scale than ever before. Years later, eliminating remote work altogether would create steep costs in recruitment, retention, morale, and productivity—making a large-scale shift away from remote work “impossible,” observers say.

Yet the tide appears to be turning back toward the office. Trump’s return-to-office order adds his administration to a list of bold-faced names—including Amazon, JPMorgan Chase, and others—that want corporate staff onsite for five full days.

“Does it add momentum to the pendulum shift back to the office? Experts say it’s too early to call it quits on remote work.”

Here’s another quote from the article:

“The number of opportunities for remote and hybrid jobs has definitely declined a bit, but I don’t think we’re ever going to go back to pre-pandemic levels,” said Alison Shrivastava, an economist at Indeed Hiring Lab. “It’s like a settling of remote work instead of remote going completely away.”

The share of job postings on Indeed mentioning remote and hybrid work climbed from less than 3% before the pandemic to a high of roughly 10% in early 2022. By the end of December, it was down to 8%, about the same level as December 2023.

“This December, 23% of people reported teleworking for some or all hours in their job. One year earlier, almost 22% said the same thing. The amount of at least some telework in those Labor Department statistics trended higher—barely—throughout 2023.”

Let me pause here to make a quick point. This article already dispels a lot of rumors about remote work. Throughout 2024, we kept hearing that remote work was way down, job listings were harder to find, and it was disappearing. But this article shows that between December 2023 and December 2024, there wasn’t much of a change. That really demonstrates the staying power of remote work.

Let’s get back to the article.

“In his LinkedIn post, Bloom noted that employees’ use of hybrid work schedules has been essentially stable over the past two years, and he doesn’t see the White House’s move to end working from home as something that will affect everyone. One big reason for that: Hybrid work-from-home schedules are ‘very profitable for firms,’” Bloom wrote, because they have ‘no net effect on productivity while cutting down costly turnover.’”

Let’s pause again because this is a crucial point. Studies show that working remotely or in hybrid arrangements actually benefits companies. It boosts morale, productivity, and retention, which are all positives for the bottom line.

Now, back to the article:

“Three-quarters of people with jobs allowing remote work say they’ve done so at least some of the time, according to a Pew Research Center survey. Almost half of this group, or 46%, said it would be unlikely they would stay at their job if their employer barred working from home.”

That’s collective bargaining in action. There’s clearly a disconnect between what companies announce—like ending remote work—and what’s happening on the ground. Bloom noted:

“Despite high-profile company announcements, work-from-home levels have been flat since early 2023.”

The article adds:

“It’s also unclear if the White House order will actually be enforced,” Bloom said. “The order gives managers leeway to make exceptions for some federal employees to continue working remotely.”

Okay, let’s pause again. The contributors to this article clearly have a stake in remote work’s continuation—they likely consult or advise companies on remote policies. While their optimism is admirable, I think they might be a bit naive. Trump is going to do what Trump wants to do, and if he wants federal workers in offices, he’ll likely enforce it.

Now, the article goes on to highlight some counterpoints. For instance, some smaller firms see opportunities as big employers crack down on return-to-office policies. Rachel Bernier Green, founder of a fully remote financial services firm, says:

“When I hear these big companies say, ‘Come back to work,’ it just makes me more excited because I’m going to be more competitive in the job market.”

She added:

“When I talk to prospective employees about benefits, the ability to work remotely will be there at the top of the list.”

This demonstrates how smaller companies are leveraging remote work as a competitive advantage.

Finally, the article wraps up with a quote from Bernie Green of EG Consortium:

“I don’t think remote work is going to go away,” she said. “I think employers have underestimated how compelling a draw it is for employees.”

So, what do I think? Remote work isn’t going away completely, but it will face challenges. We’ve already seen the federal government’s actions trickling down to the private sector. However, as some opportunities vanish, others will arise—particularly for freelancers and independent contractors who can choose how and where they work.

β€ŠIt's a great idea to start thinking about how you can start freelancing or doing contract work. Being an independent contractor is one of the most powerful things you can do to set yourself up to be able to work any way you want, whether that's remotely or hybrid or in the office or in a different country or on the beach or in a van like me sometimes. So that's where I think we're headed.

I'd love to hear your thoughts on this. You could rate the podcast and leave a comment about this episode at the same time. Well, thanks so much for listening. I hope my voice wasn't too crackly. I'll see you here next time for another great topic.

 

If you want to start something new but feel a bit overwhelmed, I invite you to take my free remote work training:

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